报告题目 | Hospital Admission and Social Distancing Intervention in COVID-19 Pandemic: A Modified SEIR Model with Constrained Access to Medical Resources | |
报告人（单位） | 陈植元（副教授） | |
主持人（单位） | 薛巍立（东南大学） | |
时间地点 | 时间：2021年5月 18 日（周二 ）上午9 点30 腾讯会议ID：887 635 691 | |
报告内容摘要 | COVID-19 is a highly contagious disease and has been spread to most countries of the world with unprecedented transmission speed. Medical resources and treatments provided by the healthcare system are most critical to reduce the mortality rate of COVID-19 and to contain the spread of COVID-19 by isolating infectious individuals. We introduce a modified SEIR model with consideration of individuals’ constrained access to medical resources to characterize the vital role of critical medical resources during the pandemic. We discuss how the three different hospital admission policies (hierarchy, mixed, and Fangcang sheltered healthcare system) affect the spread of the disease and the number of deaths and infections overtime. We find that Fangcang shelter system results in the least number of infections, deaths as well as occupied beds among all three systems. In addition, when the hospital capacity is relatively high or transmission rate of the mildly infected patient is not ignorable, a mixed system can result in lower number of infections and deaths but higher occupied beds than a hierarchy system because it prevents the disease transmission to a great extent. Public policies of social distancing play an important role in moderating the spreads overtime. We investigate the performance of the three healthcare systems under a static social distancing policy. We find that, under a static social distancing policy, a Fangcang shelter system results in the largest reduction in infections and deaths. Moreover, we conduct simulations on two types of dynamic lockdown policies and find that an effective dynamic lockdown policy should smoothing the burden of a healthcare system and keeping minimum disruption of economic activities. That is, a lockdown that occurs either too early or two late could results in more death and infections. | |
报告人简介： 陈植元现任武汉大学经济与管理学院管理科学与工程系副教授、硕士生导师。他的主要研究兴趣是库存管理、供应链管理，及平台运营中的双边动态匹配问题。他发表学术论文SCI十余篇，主持国家自然科学基金青年及面上项目各一项。 | ||
