讲座题目 | When Whispers Floods the Market: How Corporate Rumors Affect Analysts’ Earnings Forecast Error | ||
主讲人 （单位） | 权小锋 （苏州大学） | 主持人 （单位） | 潘健平 黄泽悦（东南大学） |
讲座时间 | 2025年05月30日（周五）14：00 | 讲座地点 | 经管楼B201会议室 |
主讲人简介 |
权小锋，苏州大学特聘（领军）教授，会计系教授，博士生导师，苏州大学校学术委员会委员。苏州大学资本运营与风险控制研究中心主任，苏州大学人文社科优秀学术团队带头人，国家社会科学基金重大项目首席专家，霍英东全国优秀青年教师基金获得者。入选长江学者奖励计划青年学者、财政部全国会计高端人才项目。已在《经济研究》、《管理世界》、《管理科学学报》、《Journal of Business Ethics》、《Financial Management》、《Journal of Banking and Finance》、《Journal of Business Finance & Accounting》等国内外核心期刊发表论文100余篇。主持国家社科基金重大项目1项，国家自然科学基金2项，教育部、民政部、中国博士后特别资助以及其他省部级重点科研项目10余项，出版学术专著2部，主编教材1部。研究报告获省部级领导批示4篇，科研成果以排名第一身份获省部级奖励6项。 | ||
讲座内容摘要 | Capital markets are awash with news, presenting a kaleidoscope of valuable insights and misleading noise. This study examines the impact of corporate rumors—a kind of unverified and informal news—on analysts’ earnings forecast errors. Using a novel dataset of hand-collected corporate rumors for Chinese A-share firms spanning 2007-2023, we document that rumors significantly amplify analyst forecast errors, with each incremental rumor associated with a 12.14% rise in inaccuracies on average. Robustness tests—including propensity score matching, two-stage least squares estimation, and Heckman corrections—support these findings and confirm causality. We further show that corporate rumors inflate forecast error by undermining media informativeness and exacerbating analyst emotional bias. Moreover, the rumor effect is more pronounced in companies with higher information opacity and greater operational uncertainty, but less impactful for local and female analysts. Notably, we find that analyst site visits serve as an effective mitigation strategy against rumor-induced forecasting distortions. Collectively, our findings underscore the corrosive effect of corporate rumors on market efficiency, even among sophisticated financial professionals. | ||
