学术前沿讲座--What determines China’s trade balance dynamics: adisaggregate analysis of panel data

顾欣（东南大学）

China’s huge trade surplus has attracted much interest around the globe from people of different walks of life. What has contributed to China’s trade surplus has been a puzzle. Many researchers have attempted to discover the determinants that are responsible for China’s trade imbalance but their findings are inconclusive or debatable. This paper offers new insights into the determinants of China’s trade balance. In this study, the re-export role of Hong Kong in the trade of China’s mainland is examined and the actual level of bilateral trade flows between China and each of its major trading partners is then re-estimated. Both of these treatments are the first time employed in the literature, representing a major innovation in studying China’s trade balance. The analysis with re-estimated trade data reveals that labour costs, income, FDI and the exchange rate are all important determinants of China’s trade surplus. However, the low labour cost has a much greater impact on China’s trade surplus, followed by FDI. The exchange rate is also important but not as critical as many others have claimed.

 

 顾欣，女，东南大学经济管理学院国际经济与贸易系。主要研究方向：国际经济学，宏观经济，中国经济。澳大利亚詹姆斯库克大学商学院经济学博士，东南大学经济管理学院金融系本科，国际贸易学硕士毕业。